Forex Trading - Getting Started

Forex Trading: a Beginner's Guide

The forex market is the world's largest international currency trading market operating non-stop during the working week. Most forex trading is done by professionals such as bankers. Generally forex trading is done through a forex broker - but there is nothing to stop anyone trading currencies. Forex currency trading allows buyers and sellers to buy the currency they need for their business and sellers who have earned currency to exchange what they have for a more convenient currency. The world's largest banks dominate forex and according to a survey in The Wall Street Journal Europe, the ten most active traders who are engaged in forex trading account for almost 73% of trading volume.

However, a sizeable proportion of the remainder of forex trading is speculative with traders building up an investment which they wish to liquidate at some stage for profit. While a currency may increase or decrease in value relative to a wide range of currencies, all forex trading transactions are based upon currency pairs. So, although the Euro may be 'strong' against a basket of currencies, traders will be trading in just one currency pair and may simply concern themselves with the Euro/US Dollar ( EUR/USD) ratio. Changes in relative values of currencies may be gradual or triggered by specific events such as are unfolding at the time of writing this - the toxic debt crisis.

Because the markets for currencies are global, the volumes traded every day are vast. For the large corporate investors, the great benefits of trading on Forex are:

• Enormous liquidity - over $4 trillion per day, that's $4,000,000,000. This means that there's always someone ready to trade with you
• Every one of the world's free currencies are traded - this means that you may trade the currency you want at any time
• Twenty four - hour trading during the 5-day working week
• Operations are global which mean that you can trade with any part of the world at any time

From the point of view of the smaller trader there's lots of benefits too, such as:

• A rapidly-changing market - that's one which is always changing and offering the chance to make money
• Very well developed mechanisms for controlling risk
• Ability to go long or short - this means that you can make money either in rising or falling markets
• Leverage trading - meaning that you can benefit from large-volume trading while having a relatively-low capital base
• Lots of options for zero-commission trading

How the forex Market Works

As forex is all about foreign exchange, all transactions are made up from a currency pair - say, for instance, the Euro and the US Dollar. The basic tool for trading forex is the exchange rate which is expressed as a ratio between the values of the two currencies such as EUR/USD = 1.4086. This value, which is referred to as the 'forex rate' means that, at that particular time, one Euro would be worth 1.4086 US Dollars. This ratio is always expressed to 4 decimal places which means that you could see a forex rate of EUR/USD = 1.4086 or EUR/USD = 1.4087 but never EUR/USD = 1.40865. The rightmost digit of this ratio is referred to as a 'pip'. So, a change from EUR/USD = 1.4086 to EUR/USD = 1.4088 would be referred to as a change of 2 pips. One pip, therefore is the smallest unit of trade.

With the forex rate at EUR/USD = 1.4086, an investor purchasing 1000 Euros using dollars would pay $1,408.60. If the forex rate then changed to EUR/USD = 1.5020, the investor could sell their 1000 Euros for $1,502.00 and bank the $93.40 as profit. If this doesn't seem to be large amount to you, you have to put the sum into context. With a rising or falling market, the forex rate does not simply change in a uniform way but oscillates and profits can be taken many times per day as a rate oscillates around a trend.

When you're expecting the value EUR/USD to fall, you might trade the other way by selling Euros for dollars and buying then back when the forex rate has changed to your advantage.

Is forex Risky?

When you trade on forex as in any form of currency trading, you're in the business of currency speculation and it is just that - speculation. This means that there is some risk involved in forex currency trading as in any business but you might and should, take steps to minimise this. You can always set a limit to the downside of any trade, that means to define the maximum loss that you are prepared to accept if the market goes against you - and it will on occasions.

The best insurance against losing your shirt on the forex market is to set out to understand what you're doing totally. Search the internet for a good forex trading tutorial and study it in detail- a bit of good forex education can go a long way!. When there's bits you don't understand, look for a good forex trading forum and ask lots and lots of questions. Many of the people who habitually answer your queries on this will have a good forex trading blog and this will probably not only give you answers to your questions but also provide lots of links to good sites. Be vigilant, however, watch out for forex trading scams. Don't be too quick to part with your money and investigate anything very well before you shell out any hard-earned!

The forex Trading Systems

While you may be right in being cautious about any forex trading system that's advertised, there are some good ones around. Most of them either utilise forex charts and by means of these, identify forex trading signals which tell the trader when to buy or sell. These signals will be made up of a particular change in a forex rate or a trend and these will have been devised by a forex trader who has studied long-term trends in the market so as to identify valid signals when they occur. Many of the systems will use forex trading software which identifies such signals from data inputs which are gathered automatically from market information sources. Some utilise automated forex trading software which can trigger trades automatically when the signals tell it to do so. If these sound too good to be true to you, look around for online forex trading systems which will allow you undertake some dummy trading to test them out. by doing this you can get some forex trading training by giving them a spin before you put real money on the table.

How Much do you Need to Start off with?

This is a bit of a 'How long is a piece of string?' question but there are ways for to be beginner to dip a toe into the water without needing a fortune to start with. The minimum trading size for most trades on forex is usually 100,000 units of any currency and this volume is referred to as a standard "lot". However, there are many firms which offer the facility to purchase in dramatically-smaller lots than this and a bit of internet searching will soon locate these. There's many adverts quoting only a couple of hundred dollars to get going! You will often see the term acciones trading forex and this is just a general term which covers the small guy trading forex. Small-scale trading facilities such as these are often called as forex mini trading.

Where do You Start?

The single most obvious answer is of course - on the internet! Online forex trading gives you direct access to the forex market and there's lots and lots of companies out there who are in business just to deal with you online. Be vigilant, do spend the time to get some good forex trading education, again this can be provided online and set up your dummy account to trade before you attempt to go live. If you take care and take your time, there's no reason why you shouldn't be successful in forex trading so, have patience and stick at it!

Types of Forex Charts


There are several types of the Forex charts that are used by the currency market traders. Perhaps, the most popular among them is the Japanese candlestick chart, which offers a lot of information about the price, which, at the same time, is easily understandable and can be used to analyze the chart patterns. Other chart types include: OHLC bars (which aren’t too different from the candlesticks but aren’t so visually informative), chart lines and point-and-figure charts. Here are the examples of all the four types:
Japanese Candlestick OHLC Bar Line Point-and-Figure
Japanese Candlestick OHLC Bar Line PF

I prefer to trade using the Japanese candlestick charts, sometimes I also look at P&F charts but that happens quite rare. And how about you?

What type of Forex chart do you prefer?

* Japanese Candlesticks
* OHLC Bars
* Lines
* Point-and-Figure
* Raw Quotes

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Forex Technical Analysis for 10/12—10/16 Week

EUR/USD trend: sell.
GBP/USD trend: sell.
USD/JPY trend: buy.
EUR/JPY trend: buy.
Floor Pivot Points
Pair 3rd Sup 2nd Sup 1st Sup Pivot 1st Res 2nd Res 3rd Res
EUR/USD 1.4223 1.4352 1.4463 1.4591 1.4703 1.4831 1.4943
GBP/USD 1.5411 1.5590 1.5767 1.5946 1.6124 1.6303 1.6480
USD/JPY 86.36 87.29 88.54 89.47 90.72 91.66 92.91
EUR/JPY 126.28 127.66 129.26 130.64 132.24 133.62 135.23

Woodie’s Pivot Points
Pair 2nd Sup 1st Sup Pivot 1st Res 2nd Res
EUR/USD 1.4347 1.4455 1.4587 1.4695 1.4827
GBP/USD 1.5589 1.5767 1.5946 1.6123 1.6302
USD/JPY 87.37 88.70 89.55 90.88 91.74
EUR/JPY 127.71 129.38 130.70 132.36 133.68

Camarilla Pivot Points
Pair 4th Sup 3rd Sup 2nd Sup 1st Sup 1st Res 2nd Res 3rd Res 4th Res
EUR/USD 1.4443 1.4509 1.4531 1.4553 1.4597 1.4619 1.4641 1.4707
GBP/USD 1.5749 1.5847 1.5880 1.5912 1.5978 1.6010 1.6043 1.6141
USD/JPY 88.59 89.19 89.39 89.59 89.99 90.19 90.39 90.99
EUR/JPY 129.23 130.05 130.32 130.60 131.14 131.42 131.69 132.51

Tom DeMark’s Pivot Points
Pair EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY EUR/JPY
Resistance 1.4647 1.6213 91.19 132.93
Support 1.4407 1.5857 89.01 129.95

Fibonacci Retracement Levels
Pairs EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY EUR/JPY
100.0% 1.4720 1.6125 90.41 132.01
61.8% 1.4628 1.5989 89.57 130.87
50.0% 1.4600 1.5947 89.31 130.52
38.2% 1.4571 1.5905 89.06 130.17
23.6% 1.4536 1.5853 88.74 129.73
0.0% 1.4480 1.5769 88.22 129.03

Tags: EUR/JPY, EUR/USD, Fibonacci, GBP/USD, pivot points, technical analysis, USD/JPY


Forex Broker with Simple Trading Platform


10Pips is a new Forex broker that was added to the list on my site today. Its main stated advantage is the simplicity of the trading platform and the overall process of starting Forex trading even for the complete newbies. I don’t know why did they give their broker such a name but, in my opinion, 10 pips is too much for a spread and too low for a profit :-). Of course, their spreads are quite below 10 pips (EUR/USD spread is only 2 pips, which is the current industry’s average). It should also be said that they are not a purely Forex broker since they offer CFD, stocks, commodities and index trading as well. Other features of 10Pips include:

* Multilingual traders’ support
* Real account bonuses
* Deposit via WebMoney, wire transfer or credit cards
* $100 to start trading
* Leverage — up to 1:200

Tags: bonus, CFD, Forex broker, WebMoney
1 Comment »
Forex Strategies Section
October 8th, 2009

I’ve finally added a Forex strategies section to my site today. Currently it only lists only 9 strategies (very simple ones) — that isn’t a lot, but that list can help newbie traders to find their first strategy or to get a model for creating their own trading system. The presented strategies are basically divided into three categories according to their main principle of the entry conditions: strategies based on the technical indicators, strategies based on the bare charts or price action and strategies based on the fundamental indicators. If you know some good interesting Forex strategies and want to share them with other traders, you can send the strategy to me and I will certainly add it to the list on the site. You will even get credited for the strategy, getting a mention on its page.

EUR/USD Met Its Resistance Level

The euro went up against the U.S. dollar today on the Forex market but the latest trading results show that the EUR/USD pair has met its resistance point near 1.4800. The fundamental factors that affect the U.S. dollar look positive, as the macroeconomical statistics from United States is rather good today, while the ECB decision to leave the interest rate unchanged at 1% is quite neutral. EUR/USD is now trading near 1.4733.

Initial jobless claims were reported at 521k for the last week — that’s 33k less than the previous week’s figure. Traders expected a decline to 541k jobless claims.

Wholesale inventories decreased by 1.3% in August, following 1.6% drop in July. According to the analysts’ forecast the inventories should have gone down by 1%. Declining inventories of the wholesalers indicate an elevated consumer demand.

Other important U.S. fundamental releases went out earlier this week:

ISM services index went up from 48.4% to 50.9% in September, which was a bit better than the expected 50% value.

U.S. crude oil inventories decreased by 1 million barrels last week, while the motor gasoline inventories went up 2.9 million barrels.

Consumer credit in United States decreased by $12 billion in August after falling by $19 billion in July. The estimated credit change value for the August was at $10 billion.

Tags: consumer credit, crude oil inventories, initial jobless claims, ISM services, wholesale inventories

Do You Use Forex Trading Strategy?

According to many Forex guides, tutorials and manuals, the trading strategy is the backbone of the successful trading behavior. The most obvious reason to have a well-defined Forex strategy is to stop relying on bare luck and move from the Forex gambling to the actual Forex trading. With a strategy it’s much easier to analyze the trading performance, its rights and wrongs. It also becomes easier to keep a Forex trading journal if you use some system for entering and exiting the market. Unfortunately, it’s not very easy to follow a strategy, especially if it allows some losing periods. Some traders (including me) are prone to the constant changing of a strategy, which is not always upgrading it but often degrades the strategy. And how about you? Is it more simple to trade with a Forex strategy for you?

Do you have a Forex trading strategy?

* Yes, I've developed my own Forex strategy.
* No, I don't have a trading strategy.
* Yes, I use strategies developed by someone else.
* Yes, I use a paid Forex strategy.
* I change my trading strategies constantly.

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Russian Forex Broker with CFD and Futures

EXNESS is a Russian Forex broker that has only recently gone on-line with its website and is offering trading services in the traditional currency pairs and also in CFDs for many global stock markets, as well as in the futures contracts for commodity and index exchanges. Overall it’s a good broker to start with (only $100 minimum and 1:200 leverage), if you aren’t very paranoid about the broker’s regulation because currently there is no institution in Russia that would regulate on-line Forex trading specifically. Other interesting features of this Forex broker are:

* MetaTrader 4 platform
* 11 ways to fund your trading account
* 2 pips average variable spread on EUR/USD
* Trade in gold and crude oil


Forex Technical Analysis for 10/05—10/09 Week

EUR/USD trend: sell.
GBP/USD trend: sell.
USD/JPY trend: buy.
EUR/JPY trend: hold.
Floor Pivot Points
Pair 3rd Sup 2nd Sup 1st Sup Pivot 1st Res 2nd Res 3rd Res
EUR/USD 1.4223 1.4352 1.4463 1.4591 1.4703 1.4831 1.4943
GBP/USD 1.5411 1.5590 1.5767 1.5946 1.6124 1.6303 1.6480
USD/JPY 86.36 87.29 88.54 89.47 90.72 91.66 92.91
EUR/JPY 126.28 127.66 129.26 130.64 132.24 133.62 135.23

Woodie’s Pivot Points
Pair 2nd Sup 1st Sup Pivot 1st Res 2nd Res
EUR/USD 1.4347 1.4455 1.4587 1.4695 1.4827
GBP/USD 1.5589 1.5767 1.5946 1.6123 1.6302
USD/JPY 87.37 88.70 89.55 90.88 91.74
EUR/JPY 127.71 129.38 130.70 132.36 133.68

Camarilla Pivot Points
Pair 4th Sup 3rd Sup 2nd Sup 1st Sup 1st Res 2nd Res 3rd Res 4th Res
EUR/USD 1.4443 1.4509 1.4531 1.4553 1.4597 1.4619 1.4641 1.4707
GBP/USD 1.5749 1.5847 1.5880 1.5912 1.5978 1.6010 1.6043 1.6141
USD/JPY 88.59 89.19 89.39 89.59 89.99 90.19 90.39 90.99
EUR/JPY 129.23 130.05 130.32 130.60 131.14 131.42 131.69 132.51

Tom DeMark’s Pivot Points
Pair EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY EUR/JPY
Resistance 1.4647 1.6213 91.19 132.93
Support 1.4407 1.5857 89.01 129.95

Fibonacci Retracement Levels
Pairs EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY EUR/JPY
100.0% 1.4720 1.6125 90.41 132.01
61.8% 1.4628 1.5989 89.57 130.87
50.0% 1.4600 1.5947 89.31 130.52
38.2% 1.4571 1.5905 89.06 130.17
23.6% 1.4536 1.5853 88.74 129.73
0.0% 1.4480 1.5769 88.22 129.03


EUR/USD Jumps Up on Deteriorating Economic Conditions

The euro rose against the U.S. dollar today despite the unexpectedly bad values reported on the two important macroeconomic indicators in United States. With each new trading session it looks like the dollar is becoming more and more positively correlated with the U.S. economy, losing when the fundamentals are bad and gaining when they are good. EUR/USD is now trading near 1.4594.

Nonfarm payrolls were reported at -263k for September — that’s worse than -201k reported for July and -175k value of the forecast. Unemployment rate jumped up from 9.7% to 9.8%.

Factory orders decreased by 0.8% in August in U.S., following 1.4% gain in July. The forecast by the analysts showed that this indicator will be reported with 0% change.


USD Gains vs. Euro on Positive Income & Spending

EUR/USD dropped today, going below the yesterday’s positive trading session’s open level. The traders probably react on the improved personal income and spending growth report, betting for the faster U.S. economy’s recovery. On the other hand, a growth of the dollar may be a result of the bad jobless claims report. Currently EUR/USD is trading near 1.4554, it also reached it’s lowest level since September 14th today — 1.4518.

Personal income rose by 0.2% in August in United States. Personal spending increased by 1.3% in that month. Income growth remained the same as in July, while the spending growth accelerated from 0.3%. Forecast for personal income gain was at 0.1% and the forecast for spending was at 1.1%.

Initial jobless claims went up from 534k to 551k last week. That was an unexpected gain as only 535k claims were forecasted for today’s report.

ISM PMI fell from 52.9% to 52.6% in September. This is a signal of stagnation for the U.S. manufacturing industry, but while it’s still above 50% it’s a good signal overall. Traders expected a gain to 54.0% from this report.

Pending home sales index rose by 6.4% in August, following 3.2% gain in July. The market analysts predicted a growth by 1%. At 103.8 pending home sales index is now above the average level of 2001.

Construction spending in U.S. rose by 0.8% in August compared to July. This growth followed 1.1% drop in July. Forecasted change was at -0.1%.



Dollar Slightly Down But Spike Hints Bearish Sentiment
September 30th, 2009

The U.S. dollar dropped against the euro today after some rather good fundamental reports on employment and total economic output. But the upward spike on the EUR/USD chart, which is significantly higher than the daily gain hints that the bearish sentiment among the traders is still quite strong near 1.4670 level. Currently, EUR/USD is trading near 1.4517.

ADP employment change report for September 2009 showed a decline by 254k jobs — that’s better than August’s 298k drop, but is worse than only 200k drop forecasted by the analysts.

U.S. GDP change for the 2nd quarter of 2009 received it final revision report today, which showed a decrease by only 0.7%, compared to 1% drop in the previous report and 1.2% decline forecast.

Chicago PMI fell from 50.0 to 46.1 in September, reflecting the pessimistic expectations of the manufacturing industry managers in the region. The index was expected to rise to 52.0.

U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 2.8 million barrels last week, while the total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 1.6 million barrels during the same period of time.

Tags: ADP employment, Chicago PMI, crude oil inventories, GDP
2 Comments »
EUR/USD Declines Despite Increased House Prices
September 29th, 2009

EUR/USD continued to fall today in the Forex market despite the optimistic stock market conditions and good housing report. It’s either that the euro is losing its attractiveness to the global investors or the greenback is beginning to really benefit from the better prospects for the U.S. economy. EUR/USD is currently trading near 1.4537.

S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price index (seasonally-adjusted) grew for a second month in a row in July 2009. The index went up from 141.42 to 143.05 from the
previous month. It decreased by 13.41% year-over-year, following 15.40% decrease a month earlier. The forecasted year-over-year drop was 14.25%.

Consumer confidence went down from 54.5 to 53.1 in September. It was an unexpected drop as the forecasts hinted a growth to 57.0.


Interview with Azurite Markets

I am always open to interviewing Forex brokers and other interesting Forex companies. I believe that the readers of this blog are very interested in hearing about Forex trading from the people that form the industry as we trade. Last week, a Director and Vice President of Azurite Markets, Adam D. Neal, contacted me asking if I would be willing to do an interview with him. Of course, I agreed and now I can offer you his answers to the questions about the Forex company he represents and the current state of the Forex market industry.

You are a rather new Forex broker compared to many other established companies in this industry. How did you come to a decision to start such a business in an over-saturated market?

Although the market is saturated with Forex Brokers, it is unfortunately not populated with a wealth of very good ones; therefore we think that we can certainly prosper within this industry by ensuring that no matter how much we grow we stay client focused.

Who are the main target audience of Azurite Markets? Who are your current customers — beginning Forex traders or experienced professionals, middle-income casual traders or high-income dedicated traders?

The two main groups our clients fall under are: first, retail clients trading on the financial markets (all levels from beginner to professional) and, second, other FX and CFD providers that wish to hedge some of their exposure with us.

Currently you offer quite an interesting stand-alone platform and a web trading platform but do you plan to add a very popular MetaTrader platform too? Why?

If our clients request further services, inclusive of new platforms then sure we will look to add these services, however the feedback regarding our platform has been very very positive. In some ways our platform is very similar to the MT4, however it does have a number of distinct advantages over the MT4 platform like the net trade tab, such a simple yet exceedingly functional tab for clients.

Do you help your traders somehow? Offer to them free learning courses or e-book? What about some other ways to increase their understanding of the currency market?

Yes, we offer our clients a number or market reviews and previews; we also offer free SMS services for: economic announcements, market prices, notifications when pending orders have been executed and account summaries.

Many Forex brokers seek to offer many e-currencies and other electronic means of withdrawal and deposit to their clients? Why do you offer only wire transfer? Do you plan adding PayPal or Moneybookers?

To begin with our clients weren’t too interested in online payments, however now that they have requested these services we have setup the facility to accept credit card payments and in the near future should be accepting a number of other online payments.

What features of Azurite Markets as a broker attract the traders? What makes you unique among hundreds of other brokers?

We are very client focused, we also backup the promises we make to clients. I’d say that massively differentiates us from other brokerage houses.

What do you think about allowing your customers to open an account and confirm their identity fully on-line, without sending any paper documents? Is possible in the future?

We do have an online process in which clients can upload their information and have their trading account fully approved. However, they then have a two week window to send us their documents. Azurite operates very strict “Know your client” and ”Anti Money Laundering” reviews. Personally, if I was opening an account with a broker I would worry if they did not carry out such stringent KYC and AML as they either do not follow regulatory procedures or the regulatory umbrella they fall under does not take such illegal activities seriously.

Without a proper communication with its traders some Forex brokers often make an impression of some shady fraudulent sites, even if they are regulated by serious financial authority. Does Azurite Markets communicate with its customers? How is it performed? Do you provide some media for your traders to communicate between each other — like a forum or a chat?

Firstly we ensure that our clients fully understand Azurite’s policies, this helps to establish a certain level of trust between us and the client; we also try not to change these policies. As a company we operate very transparently which in turn our clients really appreciate. Due to our regulatory requirements Azurite has to ”Treat Customers Fairly”. If anyone would like to know more about this then they can visit the FSA’s website. We also have a very experienced in-house compliance team that is there to help resolve any client issues if any were to arise.

What would advise to the new Forex trader? How should they begin and how should they learn to become professional traders?

I always recommend a very risk adverse and experienced mentor to new traders. They should also be looking to build their knowledge on some solid foundations rather than a few online forums and a demo account.

You offer a lot of other trading instruments except common currency pairs, including commodities, metals, indexes, etc. Are they popular among your traders? Do you promote these instruments somehow?

Yes CFD products are very popular with our clients, chiefly Crude Oil contracts and Indices. With equity markets rising approximately 50% between March and September of this year and Crude Oil as volatile as ever we have seen clients flooding into these products.

Why did you name your company Azurite Markets? Does the name mean anything?

Azurite is a beautiful, hard wearing and affordably priced gem. So I guess you could say Azurite Markets mirrors that in its affordable yet exceedingly reliable execution of trades.

What’s your point of view on the opinion that Forex trading as a kind of gambling? What are the main differences between trading and gambling, in your opinion?

I think that John Maynard Keynes had a very good perception when he said “It is generally agreed that casinos should, in the public interest, be inaccessible and expensive. And perhaps the same is true of stock exchanges.” Whether someone is gambling or trading within their account, I’d say they were in the best position to know. I’d also pose the question: Do banks gamble or trade?! I think that would prove to be a very heated discussion with the recent happenings within the markets.


What is the Average Forex Trading Account Size?

I’ve always wondered how much other traders are risking with their Forex trading accounts. Personally I come really conservatively to limiting my Forex trading account’s size, I never keep it above $10,000 and I am always withdrawing “extra” profits, because sometimes I am entering really ugly losing streaks. I know traders that never deposited more than $100 and traded with such balance for a year or two. Meanwhile there are very dedicated Forex “spenders” that keep accounts near 40–50 grands and are looking quite happy with that. So, how about you?

What's the size of your average Forex trading account?

* Less than $100.
* Between $100 and $1,000.
* Between $1,000 and $2,000.
* Between $2,000 and $10,000.
* More than $10,000.
* Why should I be telling you this?
* I don't have a Forex trading account.

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English Forex Broker Rich in Trading Instruments

Azurite Markets is a latest addition to the list of the Forex brokers on my site. It’s a company registered in England and Wales and regulated by the Financial Service Authority (FSA). The most notable feature of this broker is that it offers a large variety of the trading instruments, including but not limited to: common Forex pairs, CFD, soft and grain commodities, energy commodities (including oil and gas), metals (including gold and silver), indexes, and Forex futures (like the Dollar Index). The trading for all these instruments is performed from one account, which is very convenient. Other important features of Azurite Markets are:

* $100 effective minimum account size to start trading
* Advanced Forex trading platform
* Web Trader to trade directly from browser
* Muslim-friendly accounts on request
* Mini Forex trading lots
* Deposit/withdrawal only via the wire transfer


Forex Technical Analysis for 09/28—10/02 Week

EUR/USD trend: sell.
GBP/USD trend: hold.
USD/JPY trend: buy.
EUR/JPY trend: buy.
Floor Pivot Points
Pair 3rd Sup 2nd Sup 1st Sup Pivot 1st Res 2nd Res 3rd Res
EUR/USD 1.4309 1.4412 1.4561 1.4664 1.4813 1.4916 1.5065
GBP/USD 1.5649 1.5939 1.6104 1.6394 1.6559 1.6849 1.7014
USD/JPY 88.87 89.49 90.39 91.01 91.91 92.53 93.43
EUR/JPY 128.65 129.97 132.13 133.45 135.62 136.93 139.10

Woodie’s Pivot Points
Pair 2nd Sup 1st Sup Pivot 1st Res 2nd Res
EUR/USD 1.4424 1.4584 1.4676 1.4836 1.4927
GBP/USD 1.5908 1.6041 1.6363 1.6496 1.6818
USD/JPY 89.56 90.53 91.08 92.05 92.60
EUR/JPY 130.18 132.56 133.66 136.04 137.14

Camarilla Pivot Points
Pair 4th Sup 3rd Sup 2nd Sup 1st Sup 1st Res 2nd Res 3rd Res 4th Res
EUR/USD 1.4572 1.4641 1.4664 1.4687 1.4733 1.4757 1.4780 1.4849
GBP/USD 1.6019 1.6144 1.6185 1.6227 1.6311 1.6352 1.6394 1.6519
USD/JPY 90.45 90.87 91.01 91.15 91.43 91.57 91.71 92.12
EUR/JPY 132.38 133.34 133.66 133.98 134.62 134.94 135.25 136.21

Tom DeMark’s Pivot Points
Pair EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY EUR/JPY
Resistance 1.4865 1.6704 91.46 134.53
Support 1.4613 1.6249 89.94 131.05

Fibonacci Retracement Levels
Pairs EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY EUR/JPY
100.0% 1.4767 1.6684 91.64 134.77
61.8% 1.4670 1.6510 91.05 133.44
50.0% 1.4641 1.6457 90.88 133.03
38.2% 1.4611 1.6403 90.70 132.62
23.6% 1.4574 1.6337 90.47 132.11
0.0% 1.4515 1.6229 90.12 131.29

EUR/USD Grows on Consumer Sentiment, Ignores Housing

EUR/USD went up slightly at the Forex market today as the traders are unsure whether it’s a good idea to go for a full-scale correction after months of growth. The currency pair was in a consolidation during the early trading session but then went into a green zone after the traders began to react on the positive consumer sentiment report, ignoring the worse than expected data on new home sales in United States. EUR/USD is now trading near 1.4705.

Durable goods orders unexpectedly decreased by 2.4% in August after rising by 4.8% in July. The forecast change for this indicator was positive at 0.1%.

Michigan University consumer sentiment index rose from 65.7 to 73.5 in September — the highest level since early 2008. The expected value was at 70.2 for this index.

The new home sales report continued the cause started by the yesterday disappointing existing home sales report. The seasonally adjusted annual rate of the new home sales was at 429k in August — up from 426k in July (revised down from 433k) but below the average forecast of 440k.

Tags: durable goods orders, Michigan Sentiment Index, new home sales
2 Comments »
Euro Catches Up vs. Dollar in Correction
September 24th, 2009

After posting a first major declining day since September 1st yesterday, EUR/USD returned to the growth today. The good employment report from U.S. helped the euro to maintain a rather high intraday levels against the U.S. dollar, but the yesterday’s high wasn’t broken yet. EUR/USD is now trading near 1.4734.

Initial jobless claims hit their medium-term low according to the latest report — they were at 530k last week, following 551k value for a previous week. The forecast for the latest value was at 550k.

Existing home sales unexpectedly declined in August and were reported at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.10 million — down from 5.24 million reported for July. The Forex market participants expected 5.35 million value from today’s report.

Tags: existing home sales, initial jobless claims
1 Comment »
EUR/USD Down After FOMC Claims
September 23rd, 2009

EUR/USD managed to reach its new high level since late September 2008 and then went down below the daily open level today. The FOMC decision played the major role in today’s decline of the euro against the U.S. dollar. Currently EUR/USD is trading near 1.4764 after reaching as high as 1.4842 earlier today.

U.S. Federal Reserve decided to leave the interest rate unchanged between 0% and 0.25% but slowing down the purchase of the mortgage securities and the agency debt. The statement from the Fed also included a claim that the economical output is expected to be very low for an ”extended period”, while the changes in the monetary policy are expected to be made at the end of the first quarter of 2010.

Crude oil inventories increased for the first time in several weeks — by 2.8 million barrels during the week ending September 18. During the same time total motor gasoline inventories went up by 5.4 million barrels. Such a growth of the inventories have put a great pressure on the oil prices globally.

A minor market indicator was released this Monday — Leading Economic Indicators index increased by 0.6% in August, following 0.9% gain in July. The index was expected to rise by 0.7% in August.

E-Global Trade & Finance — Forex Broker with Liberty Reserve

Today I’ve added another Forex broker to the site — E-Global Forex. It’s not a new broker (they’ve been on-line since 2007) and they also have a rather popular IB company working for them — Forex4you (which has some additional features compared to E-Global). Apart from the standard Forex trading accounts that start from $100, E-Global offers cent accounts that have only $20 minimum and allow trading with positions as small as 10 base currency units (0.0001 lots). It’s a broker with MetaTrader 4 platform. Other highlights of this broker include:

* Sharia-compliant accounts on request
* Leverage from 1:10 to 1:500
* Small yearly interest on account balance (applied monthly)
* Regulated on BVI but offices based in Cyprus
* Deposit via Liberty Reserve, credit card and wire transfer
* Forex, CFD, gold and oil trading

Top 100 Forex Resources

The average daily forex trading volume currently exceeds $1.9 trillion. With so much on the line, we’ve put together a list of our favorite 100 forex resources to help you become a knowledgeable forex trader. The following resources were chosen for the quality of information and training tools offered. Although some of these tools are located on commercial sites, you’ll find value in materials produced by professionals. Other sites were chosen for the resources that they offered for a price (like books), but they’re all geared specifically toward the forex trader. The chosen sites are written in the English language, but some individuals, businesses, and organizations are located in areas other than the United States. All sites are listed in alphabetical order within the following categories:

Topics Covered in this Article

Beginner’s Paradise | Blogs & News | Charts | Currency & Currency Converters | Directories & Portals | Economic Calendars & Indicators | Fibonacci & Candlesticks | Forecasts and Signals | Forums and Communities | Glossaries | Market Reports | Nonprofit Associations | Practice | Real-Time Quotes | Technical Indicators | X-Tras
Beginner’s Paradise

If you’re a forex newbie, the following sites will help you get a grip on the similarities and differences between forex trading and stock exchange trading. Take advantage of free resources before you dedicate any serious cha-ching to training.

1. Tip’d: Investing and Finance Social Media / News — Get the latest forex, commodities, and market news from the largest investing social media site.
2. Currency College
— Currency College delivers a variety of course offerings with classes that are held at the student’s convenience. Each class is followed by homework and tests; each course lasts about six weeks; and each class contains about ten students. Emphasis is given to risk management. This is not free education, but if you bring referrals to Currency College you could earn a scholarship toward your tuition. This site has plenty of free resources, however, like a comparative chart for various trading platforms so you can make an educated choice about trading platforms.
3. CyberTrading University — This site offers free forex training through a two-hour video that includes a brief history, PIP spreads, majors and crosses, economic indicators, fundamental analysis, technical analysis, short-term long-term fundamentals, trading rules, leverage and margin, trading psychology, Fibonacci Retracement Levels, moving averages, oscillators, Candlestick Charts, Bollinger Bands, and more.
4. Forex Charting 101 — A brief and basic overview of forex charts from Pip Trader. You’ll discover that the charts are very similar to those that you might use for securities trading. But, some of the charts may seem more complicated if you’re not a seasoned trader.
5. Forex Realm —
Possibly the most comprehensive and thorough forex education online. Learn about everything from currency codes to exotic trading strategies through articles, graphics, and concise examples.
6. Forex-Training.com
— Fairly comprehensive training with a free demo account. The highlight to this site is their explanations about various charts.
7. FX Home Trader
— Focus on the information about technical analysis, where you can learn more about Fibonacci Trading, Pivot Points, and more. Their Forex Facts also contain some valuable information.
8. FX Power Trading Course — Offered by FXCM, this paid course is one step up from free at the current price. Learn how to time the market, recognize trends, and basics in fundamental and technical analysis through this eight-day course.
9. Investopedia on Forex — An extensive 10-part article on forex investing, from an introduction to a recap that covers everything from benefits and risks to technical analysis. If you can’t get enough of Investopedia’s information, head to a list of their Forex articles, where you can learn more and download their free e-Book entitled, "High Probability Trading Setups for the Currency Market."
10. Law of Charts
— Joe Ross offers advice for traders across the board, but the information contained in his "Law of Charts" offer speaks to forex as well as any other trading strategy. He identifies chart patterns that result from human behaviors and points to entry and exit targets on those charts. You can take advantage of Ross’s other tools as well, including the forum.
11. Learn4X — This is an interesting site simply because it contains several tests that help you determine if you have the ‘guts’ and knowledge to be a trader. They also offer a free online seminar.
12. Market Traders Institute (MTI) — You don’t need to spend a lot of money to train in forex markets. MTI offers many free resources such as videos and lesson plans that will help you get off the ground. If you like what you hear and see, you can invest in materials for the advanced trader down the road.
13. My Forex Trading Tools — A site that contains overviews on everything from fundamentals to options.
14. Online Training Academy — Free basics on FX trading via video, offered by Mike McMahon. You need to register, but you can opt out of contact lists with a click of a box.
15. School of Pipsology
— A lighthearted forex education from Kindergarten to College so the beginner knows exactly where he stands in an attempt to grasp the forex market.

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Blogs & News

The following list provides a variety of news from both professional and single-investor resources.

16. A Forex Loser
— The name of the blog ought to warn you. This blog contains a different perspective on trading, with an emphasis on trading psychology. Some great trading tips.
17. Currency Secrets
— Not updated daily, but plenty of resources in historical entries. The focus is on currency, but you can find plenty of reviews and tips here as well.
18. DailyFX — Sponsored by Forex Capital Markets (FXCM), this site offers a free weekly trading lesson, a forum, economic calendar, and free quarterly outlook reports.
19. Forex News — At-a-glance links to news and analyses.
20. Forex Project — A fascinating blog written by a forex beginner who logs his experiences in a journal, through established goals, and with a full trade history. This blogger currently is under pressure from a fulltime job, and he’s considering a transition from day trading to going long on his investments. Should be an interesting read. Be sure to check out this blogger’s list of references, including a nice beta risk calculator.
21. FX Boot Camp — Wayne McDonell offers his boot camp theories for free at his blog on FXStreet (see next).
22. FXStreet — Breaking news, commentary. Sponsored by Global Forex Trading (GFT).
23. Peter Bain Forex Trading Commentary — Peter Bain’s commentary needs to be good, as it’s a tool to push his training course. You can take advantage of his free podcasts as well.
24. Piptopia —
This is Rob Booker’s blog on forex. He’s a currency trader and trainer and he’s been at this blog for two years, so you’ll find some interesting history here.
25. Grace Cheng’s Forex Blog — "Not long after my graduation, I was introduced to forex trading, and since then, have never looked back." Outside of her blog, Cheng writes for a number of trading and investment magazines.
26. Quantitative Trading — Dr. Ernest Chan’s take on automated, statistical trading strategies.
27. Trader Mike — Michael is a trader, and this blog is a trading journal of sorts. Although he considers himself a swing/position trader, he switched to day trading in 2005. Although this blog doesn’t focus on forex per se, you can learn plenty about trading strategies here.

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Charts

You can’t trade without charts, but the chart that you use is a matter of personal preference. The list below provides a nice pool to pick from:

29. DailyFX Chart — You can manipulate this chart by type, time scale, view, and much more. Java based.
30. Free Forex Charts
— From simple to Premium to System Trading, simply the best choice of charts around.
31. Forex-Market
— This site offers two free, real-time charting applications, one Web-based and the other a stand-alone Java applet.
32. Live Currency Chart — This chart, offered by FXStreet (see Blogs & News above), is also Java based. A nice feature is the Drag&Drop that allows traders to pull indicators out of the Studies window and up into the Chart window.

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Currency & Converters

Currencies can be confusing, especially when you learn that many lots are purchased in pairs. You can learn about specific currencies when you type the names of that currency into a search engine. For instance, you can learn more about the Euro at that currency’s official site. But, if you don’t know what to look for, the information found in the following sites will help you out:

33. ADVFN Forex Symbol Table — Comprehensive list of currencies. When you click on the currency symbol you’ll reach a page where that currency is represented through currency exchange rate tables and historical exchange rate charts.
34. ExchangeRate.com
— Try out the "hot" and "currency info" links that provide information about everything you’d want to know about worldwide currencies for 170 countries. Includes calculators, fun facts, serious facts, and more.
35. Go Currency — Reliable currency converter and money conversion service.
36. List of Currencies — This is an extensive list provided by Wikipedia that covers everything from ancient coinage to the current Yen. As with most Wikipedia lists, you might run across a link or two that doesn’t contain information. But, you can use that information to search elsewhere if needed.
37. Oanda
— Excellent set of currency converter tools from historical currency exchange rates for over 164 currencies to traveler’s cheat sheets to customizable products. Visit their detailed currency converter FAQ page if you have questions.
38. X-Rates — More than a currency list or a converter, this site will bring you up-to-date on every bit of information you’d need to know as a forex trader.
39. XE.com — A basic currency converter backed up by other tools on this site, such as current and historic rate tables and a free email currency update service.

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Directories & Portals

The following resources offer choices beyond the ones listed here. Since forex is a booming individual trader industry, expect to find new sites popping up weekly.

40. Forex Central
— You want it? They have most of it (blogs are missing). Resources aren’t rated.
41. Forex Directory
— This site is a little difficult to slug through, but worth it for the resources provided.
42. Pip Trader — This site contains a forum, live quotes and charts, news, reports, and a "mini-game" that has nothing to do with forex, but that might help you lighten up a bit.
43. Top 100 Forex Sites
— Although these sites are rated by popularity and, therefore, subject to rating scams, you can learn much from the sites that are listed simply from the variety of information that’s offered here. Many sites are brokerage firms, but as I mentioned previously you can find free information on many of these sites such as news, calculators, techniques, and more.

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Economic Calendars & Indicators

Economic calendars and indicators are vital tools for fundamental research. The sites below will give you simple and detailed options.

46. Economic Indicators
— A government site brought to you by the Economics and Statistics Administration at the US Department of Commerce. Their mission is to provide timely access to the daily releases of key economic indicators from the Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau.
47. Forex Economic Calendar
— What better place to find an excellent economic calendar than a site that focuses on this tool?
48. Global Forex Trading (GFT) — A detailed look into the next month’s international monetary future based on GMT.
49. InfoForex
— Brief overviews on various sectors from Auto and Truck Sales to a Monthly Wholesale Trade report based upon the US Census.

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Fibonacci & Candlesticks

Fibonacci and Japanese Candlestick charts may seem difficult, but with the right training you can master both technical strategies.

50. Fibonacci
— This is the home page for Dr. Ron Knott’s multimedia Web site on the Fibonacci numbers, the Golden section and the Golden string hosted by the Mathematics
Department of the University of Surrey, UK. Simple to use, easy to understand, and filled with illustrations to help you learn why some numbers are so important
to nature. These numbers are also of vast interest to many forex investors.
51. Fibonacci Forex Indicators — Forex Planet will begin to show you how to apply Fibs to forex in this easy-to-understand lesson. But, the lesson is short, so you might try the next resource as well.
52. Fibonacci Method in Forex charts — This lesson also applies to forex, and it offers a short tutorial on applications along with a downloadable Fib calculator.
53. Japanese Candlesticks — FX Words offers a simple and succinct explanation for candlesticks, including bullish and bearish patterns.
54. Japanese Candlesticks (Elliott Gann) — A comprehensive tutorial that covers all the basic terminology and explains each term with appropriate graphics, offered by the ElliottGann site.
55. Japanese Candlestick Trading Forum — It costs to become a member, but you can access all the candlestick basics for free on this site.

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Forecasts and Signals

The following resources use a mix of fundamental and technical analyses to formulate their prognoses:

56. AceTrader
— True 24 hours real-time analysis for up-to-the-minute recommendations and analysis.
57. e-Forex — Free trading signals. Dig into their historical records to understand their precision.
58. Forex Predictions
— Currently free daily and weekly high-low signals through the Web site and by email. This site is a division of RDC Bancorp, Inc., a foreign exchange services company.
59. Forex Signals — FinoTek provides signals and trends with charts. Check out their archived signals to determine credibility.
60. Investica Ltd.
— Online information and free e-newsletters filled with signals and forecasts.
61. Open Forex — Daily forecasts in real trade and analytical articles on forex basic currency pairs.

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Forums and Communities

62. Forex Factory
— You’ll find a Forex Beginner Q&A section as well as topics that focus on specific strategies and techniques.
63. Forex TSD — Go ahead and lurk in this forum until you feel comfortable. Then register for free to access the forum and a calendar. The paid "elite" subscription offers detailed statements of currently more than 20 trading systems.
64. Global View Forums
— Another free forum that’s been around since 1996.
65. MoneyTec — With over 33,000 members, this traders’ forum offers a format to discuss trading ideas, share, learn, and build new trading techniques and strategies.

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Fundamental Research

The following list contains comprehensive information about economic fundamentals for your research:

66. Bureau of Economic Analysis
(BEA) — Get the straight stuff from the US Department of Commerce like the pros. Everyone from the White House staff to US Trade Commission employees to trade policy officials who want to negotiate international trade agreements use the measurements contained on the BEA Web site.
67. Consumer Price Index
(CPI) — The US Department of Labor offers a ton of information just on this page alone through their links.
68. Forex Daily Fundamentals — XpressTrade offers a daily focus on forex fundamentals.
69. The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) – An international organization which fosters international monetary and financial cooperation and serves as a bank for central banks. As such, this organization offers valuable information through their publications and research as well as through many other resources offered on this site. They also maintain a list of Central Bank Web sites.
70. The Fundamentals of Forex — Forex TV brings you the lowdown on what type of news would affect forex from a fundamental standpoint. You can use the information on this list to conduct further research.

Glossaries

71. Forex Glossary
— The only drawback to this glossary is that the "A-Z" tab doesn’t include a total listing of all the terms under the single-letter tabs. Comprehensive.
72. Forex.com Glossary
— An at-a-glance glossary contained on one page.
73. Glossary of Forex Terms [PDF] — This printable file, offered by FX International Group, contains all the basics.

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Government Regulation

74. Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) — The ASIC’s regulatory coverage includes the forex market. Use their search box to learn more about their reach and responsibility.
75. Commodities Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) — The CFTC operates along the same lines as the SEC
(Securities and Exchange Commission), except this government organization focuses on protecting market users and the public from fraud in the futures and option markets. So keep this site handy to stay on top of any forex scams through their Consumer Advisory on Forex Fraud. You can learn quickly what to avoid in your learning curve through a detailed forex advisory that offers information about other resources as well.
76. Financial Services Authority
(FSA) — An independent non-governmental body located in the UK, given statutory powers by the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000. Use their search box to locate information about the UK forex market and regulations.
77. National Futures Association
(NFA) — The NFA is "the premier independent provider of efficient and innovative regulatory programs that safeguard the integrity of the derivatives markets," which basically means that this organization regulates any market that depends upon future cash flows. The "investor information" section contains materials about how to find a broker and basic lessons in forex trading. Plus, they publish forex warnings, news, and they offer a place for investor disputes and complaints.

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Market Reports

78. KBC
[PDF] — A Comprehensive "Morning Report" from this Belgian foreign exchange bank (in English).
79. Mellon
— FX Daily report from Mellon Financial Corporation, with links to American and European editions and past issues.
80. SaxoBank
— Daily market update from this foreign exchange service in London.
81. Scotia Capital [PDF] — Daily report with corresponding links for further reading from this Canadian foreign exchange bank.
82. UBS
— Daily summary for forex markets sponsored by this Swiss foreign exchange bank.

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Nonprofit Associations

83. Australian Technical Analysts Association (ATAA) — A non-profit association of both professional technical analysts and anyone who uses technical analysis for private investing, trading or advising.
84. International Compliance Association
(ICA) — The ICA is a professional organization dedicated to the furtherance of best compliance and anti money laundering practice in the financial services sector.
85. The Financial Markets Association (ACI) — ACI has the largest membership of any of the international associations in the wholesale financial markets. The Head Office is based in Paris.

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Practice

Some of the best demonstration tools are owned by forex brokerages. The following were chosen for their reliability and popularity. Be aware that some brokerages will request your permission to be contacted by mail, phone, or email. In some cases you might want this contact, as they will provide support for your training. In all cases you can walk away if their training and trading platforms don’t turn you on.

86. CMS Forex — Customize your practice with unlimited funds on CMS Forex’s VT Trader 1.8.5.1, a program that includes an API so that you can customize your solution. This software offers a point-and-click open and close positions directly on the chart. Access over 100 indicators, Reuters Forex related news and market analytics, and an "autopilot" feature. You can reach their customer support team by phone, live chat, or e-mail.
87. Forex Trading USA — Free 30-day demo with a Mini ($2,000 virtual cash, 200:1 leverage, 10k lot size) or Standard ($25,000 virtual cash, 100:1 leverage, 100k lot size). Their free education is a nice plus.
88. FXSolutions
— Use $10,000 in practice funds with full access to FXSol’s new charting solution, FX AccuCharts. Backed by 24/7 customer service.
89. Global Forex Trading
— Download their DealBook 360 to practice forex trading with live, dealable prices, real-time data, and free real-time breaking world and financial news. The software features forex charts, more than 85 technical indicators (for standard size GFT trading accounts) and the ability to build your own indicators. You have a choice about the amount of beginning funds, from $2,500 to $50,000.

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Real-Time Quotes

90. ACM
— Pick pairs and watch the quotes. ACM includes a manual [PDF] that explains in detail how to manipulate the chart to your liking. Must have Java plugin.
91. Forex Trading Charts
— Real-time forex quotes. This site also contains real-time forex charting tools with editable indicators.
92. FXQuote
— Scroll down the page, as the real-time quotes are located at bottom left. Based upon ET.
93. Live Forex Quotes — You might recognize the GFT logo behind the rates, but don’t let that distract you from the constantly changing figures. If you’re addicted to live feeds, you’ll be mesmerized by the constantly changing currency rates on this chart.
94. SaxoBank
— Scroll down the page a bit, as the quotes are located at the bottom left on this page, based upon GMT.

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Technical Indicators

The following three resources offer the most succinct information about technical overlays and indicators. You can find many more resources at some of the sites previously listed under the Beginner’s section, under many of the Blogs & News resources, and at various brokerages.

95. Forex-Business Technical Indicators — Where the other two sites offer great technical indicator explanations, this site offers 10 charts that illustrate some of those terms.
96. IQ Chart
— This company offers a list of technical overlays and indicators with short and easy-to-understand explanations. Take a look at their chart patterns while at this site, as this company is a provider of stock charting software to individual investors and technical analysts.
97. Technical Indicators — Definitions provided by MetaQuotes Software.

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X-Tras

98. IFXTAG — The International Forex Traders Affinity Group provides individual investors access to products and services that are evaluated by top professionals and their members. IFXTAG is committed to harnessing the potential to make electronic trading work for their global community of subscribers. Membership is free, but the resources are not. Members, however, do receive free trials and discounts to various services.
99. Traders Press, Inc.
— An online bookstore specifically for traders.

Pound, Dollar are ‘Sick’ Currencies

A theme in forex markets (as well as on the Forex Blog) is that as the Dollar has declined, virtually every other asset/currency has risen. The rationale for this phenomenon is that the global economic recovery is boosting risk appetite, such that investors are now comfortable looking outside the US for yield. However, this market snapshot may have to be tweaked slightly, in accordance with a recent WSJ article (Sterling Looks Ready to Join the Sick List).

According to the report, “Similar to how investors sorted good banks from bad banks earlier this year, foreign-exchange buyers are starting to sort strong currencies from weaker currencies. The pound appears to be joining the dollar in the weak camp. Both countries have near-zero interest-rate targets, an aggressive policy aimed at boosting the economy, and yawning deficits.” In contrast, the article continues, the Yen and the Euro have risen, as have so-called commodity currencies.

Euros

While there’s no question that British economic and forex fundamentals are abysmal, it’s a bit hard to understand why the markets are picking on the Pound now. After all, the Euro, Swiss Franc, and Yen, for example, are plagued by some of the same fundamental problems: growing national debt, sluggish growth, low interest rates, etc. Investors can borrow in Yen nearly as cheaply as they can borrow in Dollars or Pounds, and the Bank of Japan is likely to keep rates low at least as long as the Bank of England (BOE), if not longer. Meanwhile, price inflation remains practically non-existent, which means that any capital that investors stash in the UK should be safe.

Perhaps, then, investors are zeroing in on the BOE’s Quantitative Easing program, which is the point of greatest overlap with the US Dollar. Relative to GDP, both currencies’ Central Banks have spent by far the most of any industrialized countries, in pumping newly printed money into credit markets. The BOE, in particular, is actually thinking about expanding its program. At a recent meeting, Mervyn King, Chairman of the Bank, led the opposition in voting for a 15% expansion, but was voted down by a majority of the bank’s other members. “The ‘next decision point‘ will be the Nov. 5 meeting,” said a former Deputy Governor of the Bank, at which point “Bank of England policy makers will consider expanding their bond purchase plan….on concern the economy’s recovery may be a ‘false dawn.’ ”

BOE Quantitative Easing (QE) Timeline Chart

The government meanwhile has demonstrated a certain ambivalence when it comes to the program. The head of the UK Debt Management Office indirectly encouraged the BOE to continues its purchases of bonds, for fear that stopping doing so could cause yields to skyrocket and make it difficult for the government to fund its activities. “A rapid sell-off could create a downward spiral of gilt prices which would make life harder for both it and the DMO.” On the other hand, one of the leaders of Britain’s conservative party – which is projected to take office after next year’s elections – has criticized the program on the grounds that it will lead to inflation.

From the BOE’s standpoint, it’s a no-win situation. Continue the policy, and you risk inflation and further invoking the ire of politicians. Wind it down, and you could tip the economy back into recession. For better or worse, it seems the BOE will err on the side of the former: “If we stopped supporting the economy now it would crash. Every country in the world and just about every informed commentator is saying the same thing. The job is not finished.” Given that inflation is projected to hover around 0% for the next two years, the BOE still has some breathing room.

As for the charge that the surfeit of cash flowing into markets is weakening the Pound, ‘So be it,’ seems to be the attitude of Mervn King who suggested that, “The weaker pound was ‘helpful’ to efforts to rebalance the British economy toward exports.” While he backtracked afterward, it still stands that the BOE hasn’t made any efforts to stem the decline of the Pound, and is at best indifferent towards it.

Regardless of where the BOE stands, the Pound is not being helped by the weak financial and housing sectors, which during the bubble years, comprised the biggest contribution to UK growth. Exports are weak, and domestic manufacturing activity has yet to stabilize. As a result, “The British economy will contract 4.4 percent this year before expanding 0.9 percent in 2010, the International Monetary Fund predicts.”

Objectively speaking, then, it makes sense to call the Pound sick. Still, many other currencies are just as sick. I guess the perennial lesson is that in forex, everything is relative.
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Posted by Adam Kritzer | in British Pound, Central Banks | No Comments »
October 9th 2009
Interview with Howard Lindzon: “I am Optimistic About Forex”

Today we bring you an interview with hedge fund manager Howard Lindzon, author of The WallSTRiP Edge and co-founder/CEO of StockTwits. Below, Howard discusses his interest in currency trading, as well as his general approach to investing.

Forex Blog: As a forex blogger, I am eager to hear how and why you developed a sudden interest in forex.

It is not a sudden interest in forex. For years, I had money with trend following managers and slowly saw the way people traded currencies. My new fascination comes from all the people on stocktwits talking currencies at odd hours :)

Forex Blog: Does your primary interest lie in currencies, themselves, or rather in the people that trade them? In other words, is it your intention to invest directly in currencies or instead to identify companies that successfully market services to currency traders? Perhaps a combination of both?

I own the Canadian Dollar right now and also gold so my fascination is in the way different things move different markets. Currencies move from macro policies and they seem to trend better. For me, It’s now a combination of both. I am learning to get a feel for currencies as I hear individuals on stocktwits actually talk about them.

Forex Blog: While it’s true that forex remains off the radar screen of many retail investors, I must point out that it’s already by the far the largest market in the world, with an estimated $4 Trillion in daily turnover. In spite of this, it seems you’re still quite optimistic about its prospects for growth?

I am optimistic because of many trends. The online brokers are way behind and must catch up. The forex brokers are way behind and see the retail consumer as a growth market and there seems to be chaos so it should be interesting which new winners emerge.

The world has indeed flattened and shrunk and currencies should be a more exciting topic as governments collide more often.

Forex Blog: Are there specific currencies that you are interested in, and/or that you believe are currently undervalued?

It is really exciting to watch the action in the dollar. I try to see the big picture. We are printing money and our policies are not changing. it seems the us government wants a cheaper dollar which would be fine, but they are also manufacturing it, so I don;t think it will work out well for it. I just don’t have a timeframe.

Forex Blog: As some of your readers pointed out, the forex market is currently saturated with fraud. New regulation is expected to clamp down on unethical business practices, but could also lower the appeal of forex by cutting leverage from 200:1 to levels associated with trading stocks retail. How will changes in regulation factor into your investment approach?

The regulation on our little community comes from the community itself. If I am learning, I think I can get others excited about learning…if not to trade, than to see how the currencies and government policies affect stock prices and other markets. I try not to worry about regulation…my size also keeps me out of the stress of it as I am too small.

Forex Blog: Shifting gears a bit, why did you decide to found/back StockTwits, a self-described “community-powered idea and information service for investments?”

I founded stocktwits to help me better track my ideas from a trusted source of friends. It’s about getting the info i want, when I want it, on any device, from the group I want it from. All that has happened is that thousands of others want info the same way. With the new filters and discovery features of twitter and now stocktwits, the speed to knowledge is faster than ever and its fun.

Forex Blog: How would summarize the growing appeal of StockTwits to its users? In other words, how does StockTwits (intend to) distinguish itself from the hundreds of other popular forums and message boards dedicated to the art of investing?

Community is the real differentiator. Every community is different. Ours just has some pretty cool features in it and i love the context our ticker has and the breadth of knowledge. I also believe in the ‘farm system’ of distributed talent and having an expert pop up out of nowhere and get rushed to the top. It’s like…oh my god…we need a doctor…BOOM, thousands of people are asking around for a doctor and then you get one right away. It’s social leverage at work.

Forex Blog: If StockTwits expanded to the point where user comments/activity influenced asset prices (as happens occasionally with RagingBull and Jim Cramer’s Mad Money), would you view this is as a positive or negative development?

If we move markets, that’s good; it’s an evolution. I doubt we will and if we do, I am hopeful it is for the right reasons and we will do everything within our power to nudge the community in the win/win, do the right thing way. We are going to be wrong all the time too so moving the market is not something people should be worried about.

Forex Blog: Finally, what advice to you have for investors that want to beat the market (any market, really) during the credit crisis?

I have never routinely beat the market. I invest heavily and with a long term time frame when I feel I have an edge. I want to beat the market not daily, weekly or yearly, but over decades. You need to pick the asset classes that jibe with your passion, thinking, energy, risk levels, liquidity needs and then passionately chase the returns.

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Posted by Adam Kritzer | in Interviews | 1 Comment »
October 6th 2009
Dollar’s Role as Reserve Currency in Jeopardy

I concluded my last post by promising to discuss the implications of a change in the status quo, regarding the Dollar’s role as the world’s reserve currency. As it turns out, the last few days have witnessed a few developments on this front.

Global Forex Reserves 1999-2009

First of all, the G7 concluded its latest round of talks. Despite previous indications to the contrary, the organization continued its practice of releasing a communique. in which it noted that global economic balances persist and that policymakers should work together to mitigate them. While seemingly benign and desirable, the proposition couldn’t have come at a worse time for the Dollar.

The only reason why the Dollar hasn’t collapsed completely is because economies largely continue to recycle their surplus wealth and trade surpluses back into Dollar-denominated assets. One columnist connects the dots with regard to the forex implications: “Less Chinese intervention to prevent yuan strength would mean China, slowly over time, would build up fewer dollar reserves.” In other words, economies no longer concerned with pegging their currencies would have very little reason to build up large pools of reserves.

In fact, China is fully on board with this notion. Following the G7 talks, Chinese officials announced that it would support a stronger Yuan as soon as the global economic crisis resolved itself. By its own reckoning, this would facilitate a shift in its economy, from one dependent on exports for growth to one focused around domestic consumption. Still, obstacles remain, and “It is far from clear how China can engineer a shift up for the yuan against the dollar, which analysts note would almost certainly translate into a gain against other currencies as well.”

Speaking of China, it is also among the most vocal of nations laboring for alternatives to the Dollar. Towards this end, it has reportedly formed a secret coalition with the other BRIC countries (Brazil, India, and Russia), as well as Japan. The goal is to end the pricing of oil in Dollars by 2018. That the group has given itself nine years to complete this task speaks to its extraordinary ambition.

The implications for the Dollar cannot be understated. A handful of oil-producing nations in the Middle East hold a combined $2.1 Trillion in Dollars, which are solely a product of selling oil in exchange for Dollars. Already, the government of Iran has mandated that in the future, all of its reserves be held in non-Dollar-denominated assets. Thus far, no other countries have followed suit. China is aware that pushing for further developments could roil the US, which would be unlikely to sit on the sidelines and watch its currency be summarily jettisoned. “Sun Bigan, China’s former special envoy to the Middle East, has warned there is a risk of deepening divisions between China and the US over influence and oil in the Middle East.”

Robert Zoellick, president of the World Bank, doesn’t harbor any illusions, and announced during a recent speech that the a decline in the role of the Dollar is inevitable. “He said the United States ‘would be mistaken to take for granted the dollar’s place as the world’s predominant currency. Looking forward there will increasingly be other options to the dollar,’ ” such as the Chinese Yuan and the Euro.

Zoellick’s warnings were prescient, when you consider that the IMF just announced that the share of Dollars in global foreign exchange reserves declined significantly in the most recent quarter, perhaps to its lowest share since the Euro was introduced in 1999. [The latter, however, has yet to be confirmed]. “The dollar’s share in global reserves declined to 62.8% from 65.0%…The euro’s share increased to 27.5% from 25.9%.”

Global allocation of Forex Reserves 1999-2009
JP Morgan’s research team has discovered a similar trend- that accumulation of US assets accounts for only half of the global increase in global forex reserves. “Quantifying this trend is always imprecise. But the circumstantial evidence — official buying of U.S. assets runs at only half of the pace of global reserve accumulation — suggests that diversification has accelerated since June.”

So, there you have it. The Dollar’s demise (to borrow a characterization by one of the columnists featured in this post) is no longer theoretical. It may have already begun…

Forex Market Update

The meltdown of the three FX stooges: USD, JPY and GBP, continues, as equities notch new highs.

Banking Holiday in Canada and United States today - though US equity markets will be open.

MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION

• New Zealand Sep. QV House Prices fell -1.1% YoY vs. -2.8% in Aug.
• Germany Sep. Wholesale Price Index fell -0.2% MoM vs. +0.3% expected
• Sweden Sep. AMV Unemployment Rate out at 5.3% vs. 5.4% expected and 5.5% in Aug.

---

THEMES TO WATCH – UPCOMING SESSION

(All times GMT)

• US National Economic Council's Summers to Speak (1615)
• US Treasury's Krueger to Speak (1715)
• New Zealand Retail Sales (2145)
• UK Sep. BRC Retail Sales Monitor (2301)
• UK Sep. RICS House Price Balance (2301)
• Australia Sep. NAB Business Conditions (0030)

Market Comments:

The USD meltdown continued this week after a brief respite on Friday after Bernanke threw out a snippet of rhetoric suggesting that rate. With equities jumping higher again in the Asian and European sessions today, the greenback and its low yielding fellow travelers, the pound sterling and Japanese Yen, didn't stand a chance, and all three weakened again versus the high flying Loonie especially, which continues to find support from the shockingly strong Canadian employment report from Friday. Crude oil tacking on to recent gains fueled further gains for the currency, and likely also helped NOK notch new highs vs. the Euro in Asia before backing off in the European session today.

Today is one of those odd "half holidays" in the US in which banks - and therefore the treasury market - are closed for the day, while equity markets will be open for business.

Reserve accumulating central banks are the primus motor of the moves in currencies here, as US and UK policies are seeing major banks shun the fiscally hopeless and low yielding currencies and diversifying especially into Euros, and the Yen to a lesser extent. A Bloomberg article this morning cites Barclay's Capital tally of the latest quarter's accumulation of FX reserves at over $400 billion. Barclay's also estimates that 63% of new reserves are being funneled into Euros and Yen. This was for the quarter ending in June, and there is certainly no sign of a change of behavior since then, in fact, the trend only seems to have strengthened. If the Chinese economy is doing so well, we ask again, then why have they not signaled that it is time to allow the renminbi to begin appreciating again? And while Europe has begun to complain about the unfair strengthening of its currency, why have the complaints not been more belligerent?

With the current persistent trends very clear and powerful, we have a look at coincident indicators and any event risks on the horizon that might provide a pivot point in the action. On the former, the strength in the Aussie, to take an example, is outpacing differentials in interest rates and is beginning to feel overdone, particularly as the last leg of Aussie appreciation has shown an acceleration in an already very well established trend. Usually, such aggravated action cannot be sustained for long, so we might expect sideways consolidation at minimum soon. Speculative positioning suggests that long Aussie positions have been crowded for some time, as well. In the case of CAD, the recent data surprise triggered moves in interest rates that fully justify the latest strengthening. And the over-riding theme of high risk appetite feeding the weaker USD will continue as long as equity markets are rallying.

As for upcoming event risks, the most interesting items on the calendar this week are Wednesday's US Advance Retail Sales and US FOMC minutes. The former is very important for measuring the strength of end demand, as our outlook suggests that end demand will not bounce back enough to provide a strong recovery due to private balance sheet deleveraging and weak wage growth. The FOMC minutes could be interesting due to the continued signs of a divided Fed, so we'll look for signs of the split widening or the hawks' impatience growing. Thursday's jobless claims number will be important for showing whether the trend toward fewer jobless claims continues now that we have entered the seasonally most important part of the year for employment. (Still interesting that more claims were filed last week than for the same week last year, just to show how much further we need to go to get real improvement rather than "less badness"). Then on Thursday we have the first two of the regional US manufacturing surveys.

Chart: GBPUSD
GBPUSD managed to stave off new lows today below 1.5800 as GBP, USD and JPY fight for lowest spot on the currency totem pole. Today's low and the 1.6110 area are the two key trigger areas for GBPUSD's next larger move now.

More analysis: Saxo Bank Market News & Analysis

Risk Warnings:

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Economic calendar for week 41 from 11 Oct. 09 to 16 Oct. 09

Date	GMT	Release for	Period	Consensus	Prior
11 Oct. 09	23:00	Fed's Bullard Speaks to Economists Group Meeting in St. Louis (United States of America )	11-Oct
12 Oct. 09	00:00	Construction Works Index (Portugal )	AUG	- -	88.4
12 Oct. 09	00:00	Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping Visits Frankfurt Book Fair (Germany)	OCT 12
12 Oct. 09	00:00	Merkel Speaks at Frankfurt Book Fair (Germany)	OCT 12
12 Oct. 09	00:00	Estonia Monthly Current Account (Estonia )	AUG	- -	1.2B
12 Oct. 09	00:00	Current Account (Turkey )	AUG	-0.2B	0.3B
12 Oct. 09	06:00	Wholesale Price Index (MoM) (Germany)	SEP	- -	0.70%
12 Oct. 09	06:00	Wholesale price Index (YoY) (Germany)	SEP	- -	-8.30%
12 Oct. 09	06:00	Exports (YoY) (Estonia )	AUG P	- -	- -
12 Oct. 09	06:00	Imports (YoY) (Estonia )	AUG P	- -	- -
12 Oct. 09	06:00	Trade Balance (Estonia )	AUG P	- -	- -
12 Oct. 09	06:00	Ahlers Releases Third-Quarter Results (Germany)	OCT 12
12 Oct. 09	06:45	EU's Almunia, Columbia's Stiglitz at Banking-Regulation Forum (European Union)	OCT 12
12 Oct. 09	07:00	Industrial Output (YoY) (Czech Republic )	AUG F	- -	-8.10%
12 Oct. 09	07:00	Construction Output (YoY) (Czech Republic )	AUG	- -	-4.40%
12 Oct. 09	07:00	Trade Balance (Mln Euros) (Romania )	AUG	- -	-487.4
12 Oct. 09	07:00	Consumer Prices (MoM) (Romania )	SEP	0.20%	-0.20%
12 Oct. 09	07:00	Consumer Prices (YoY) (Romania )	SEP	4.90%	5.00%
12 Oct. 09	07:00	Capacity Utilization (Turkey )	SEP	72.30%	69.70%
12 Oct. 09	07:30	CPI (MoM) (Germany)	SEP	- -	0.30%
12 Oct. 09	07:30	CPI (YoY) (Germany)	SEP	- -	1.10%
12 Oct. 09	07:30	CPI - EU Harmonized (MoM) (Germany)	SEP	- -	0.30%
12 Oct. 09	07:30	CPI - EU Harmonized (YoY) (Germany)	SEP	- -	0.70%
12 Oct. 09	07:30	Adisconsum Holds Conference on Idebtedness of Italian Families (Italy )	OCT 12
12 Oct. 09	07:30	EU Court Hears Arguments in Eni, Dow, Shell Appeals of Cartel (European Union)	OCT 12
12 Oct. 09	08:00	AMV Unemployment Rate (Sweden )	SEP	- -	5.40%
12 Oct. 09	08:00	Current Account Monthly (CZK) (Czech Republic )	AUG	-11.00B	-3.06B
12 Oct. 09	08:30	Tiscali Holds Roadshow on Capital Increase (Italy )	OCT 12
12 Oct. 09	10:00	Latvia Current Account (Latvia )	AUG	- -	61.6M
12 Oct. 09	10:00	Trade Balance (Latvia )	AUG	- -	-95.7M
12 Oct. 09	10:15	EU's Ferrero-Waldner Speaks at Think Tank (European Union)	OCT 12
12 Oct. 09	12:00	Unemployment Rate (Iceland )	SEP	- -	7.70%
12 Oct. 09	12:00	Current Account (Euro) (Poland )	AUG	28	-565
12 Oct. 09	12:00	Balance (Euro) (Poland )	AUG	-224	-551
12 Oct. 09	12:00	Exports (Euro) (Poland )	AUG	8020	8209
12 Oct. 09	12:00	Imports (Euro) (Poland )	AUG	8285	8760
12 Oct. 09	12:45	Merkel Meets Chinese Vice President Xi in Berlin (Germany)	OCT 12
12 Oct. 09	16:15	NEC's Summers Speaks to Economists Group Meeting in St. Louis (United States of America )	OCT 12
12 Oct. 09	17:15	Treasury's Krueger Speaks to Economists in St. Louis (United States of America )	OCT 12
12 Oct. 09	23:01	BRC September Retail Sales Monitor (United Kingdom )	OCT 12
12 Oct. 09	23:01	RICS House Price Balance (United Kingdom )	SEP	15.00%	10.70%
12 Oct. 09	23:50	Bank Lending (YoY) (Japan )	SEP	1.70%	1.80%
12 Oct. 09	23:50	Bank Lending Banks YoY (Japan )	SEP	- -	1.90%
12 Oct. 09	23:50	Bank Lending Banks Adjust YoY (Japan )	SEP	- -	2.50%
12 Oct. 09	23:50	Japan Money Stock M2 YoY (Japan )	SEP	2.90%	2.80%
12 Oct. 09	23:50	Japan Money Stock M3 YoY (Japan )	SEP	2.10%	2.00%
13 Oct. 09	00:00	Current Account (EUR)(YTD) (Romania )	AUG	- -	-2717M
13 Oct. 09	00:00	Consumer Price Index (MoM) (Portugal )	SEP	- -	-0.30%
13 Oct. 09	00:00	Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Portugal )	SEP	- -	-1.30%
13 Oct. 09	00:00	CPI - EU Harmonised (MoM) (Portugal )	SEP	- -	-0.20%
13 Oct. 09	00:00	CPI - EU Harmonised (YoY) (Portugal )	SEP	- -	-1.20%
13 Oct. 09	00:00	Bank of Italy Releases Aug. Public Finance Supplement (Italy )	OCT 13
13 Oct. 09	04:00	BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting (Japan )	OCT 13
13 Oct. 09	05:00	Fraport Releases Monthly Traffic Figures (Germany)	OCT 13
13 Oct. 09	06:45	Consumer Price Index (MoM) (France )	SEP	-0.10%	0.50%
13 Oct. 09	06:45	Current Account (EURO) (France )	AUG	- -	-1.2B
13 Oct. 09	06:45	Consumer Price Index (YoY) (France )	SEP	-0.20%	-0.20%
13 Oct. 09	06:45	CPI - EU Harmonised (MoM) (France )	SEP	0.00%	0.60%
13 Oct. 09	06:45	CPI - EU Harmonised (YoY) (France )	SEP	-0.30%	-0.20%
13 Oct. 09	06:45	CPI Ex Tobacco Index (France )	SEP	- -	118.41
13 Oct. 09	07:00	House transactions YoY (Spain )	AUG	- -	-20.30%
13 Oct. 09	07:00	Consumer Prices (MoM) (Hungary )	SEP	0.20%	-0.30%
13 Oct. 09	07:00	Consumer Prices (YoY) (Hungary )	SEP	5.30%	5.00%
13 Oct. 09	07:15	Producer & Import Prices (MoM) (Switzerland )	SEP	0.10%	0.10%
13 Oct. 09	07:15	Producer & Import Prices (YoY) (Switzerland )	SEP	-4.80%	-5.50%
13 Oct. 09	07:30	Industrial Production sa (MoM) (Netherlands )	AUG	0.30%	0.40%
13 Oct. 09	07:30	Trade Balance (Netherlands )	AUG	- -	3.2B
13 Oct. 09	07:30	Industrial Production nsa (YoY) (Netherlands )	AUG	-9.20%	-10.30%
13 Oct. 09	07:30	Industrial Sales nsa (YoY) (Netherlands )	AUG	- -	-24.10%
13 Oct. 09	07:30	CPI - Headline Rate (MoM) (Sweden )	SEP	0.60%	0.20%
13 Oct. 09	07:30	CPI - Headline Rate (YoY) (Sweden )	SEP	-1.30%	-0.80%
13 Oct. 09	07:30	SW CPI - CPIF (MoM) (Sweden )	SEP	- -	0.20%
13 Oct. 09	07:30	SW CPI - CPIF (YoY) (Sweden )	SEP	- -	1.90%
13 Oct. 09	07:30	CPI Level (Sweden )	SEP	- -	299.42
13 Oct. 09	08:30	CPI (MoM) (United Kingdom )	SEP	0.20%	0.40%
13 Oct. 09	08:30	CPI (YoY) (United Kingdom )	SEP	1.30%	1.60%
13 Oct. 09	08:30	Core CPI YOY (United Kingdom )	SEP	1.70%	1.80%
13 Oct. 09	08:30	Retail Price Index (United Kingdom )	SEP	- -	214.4
13 Oct. 09	08:30	RPI (MoM) (United Kingdom )	SEP	0.30%	0.50%
13 Oct. 09	08:30	RPI (YoY) (United Kingdom )	SEP	-1.50%	-1.30%
13 Oct. 09	08:30	RPI Ex Mort Int.Payments (YoY) (United Kingdom )	SEP	1.20%	1.40%
13 Oct. 09	08:30	DCLG UK House Prices (YoY) (United Kingdom )	AUG	- -	-8.30%
13 Oct. 09	08:30	Bank of England's Saporta to Make Speech at BBA Conference (United Kingdom )	OCT 13
13 Oct. 09	09:00	ZEW Survey (Econ. Sentiment) (European Union)	OCT	- -	59.6
13 Oct. 09	09:00	Zew Survey (Current Situation) (Germany)	OCT	-68.3	-74
13 Oct. 09	09:00	ECB's Tumpel-Gugerell Speaks in Brussels (Belgium )	OCT 13
13 Oct. 09	12:30	White House's Romer Speaks to Economists Meeting in St. Louis (United States of America )	13-Oct
13 Oct. 09	12:30	Int'l Merchandise Trade (Canada )	AUG	- -	-1.4B
13 Oct. 09	12:30	New Housing Price Index MoM (Canada )	AUG	0.20%	0.30%
13 Oct. 09	12:30	White House's Romer Speaks to Economists in St. Louis (United States of America )	OCT 13
13 Oct. 09	13:00	Bank of England's Bean to Make Speech (United Kingdom )	OCT 13
13 Oct. 09	14:00	IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (United States of America )	OCT	- -	52.5
13 Oct. 09	15:45	Audika Publishes Third-Quarter Sales Figures (France )	OCT 13
13 Oct. 09	15:45	MaRS Innovation CEO Raphael Hofstein Speaks in Toronto (Canada )	OCT 13
13 Oct. 09	17:00	Fed's Kohn Speaks to Economists in St. Louis (United States of America )	13-Oct
13 Oct. 09	17:15	New York Fed's Dudley Speaks to International Bankers in NYC (United States of America )	OCT 13
13 Oct. 09	17:45	Fed's Kohn Speaks on Economic Outlook in St. Louis (United States of America )	OCT 13
13 Oct. 09	21:00	ABC Consumer Confidence (United States of America )	OCT 11	- -	-45
13 Oct. 09	23:50	Domestic CGPI (MoM) (Japan )	SEP	0.10%	0.00%
13 Oct. 09	23:50	Domestic CGPI (YoY) (Japan )	SEP	-7.90%	-8.50%
14 Oct. 09	00:00	Money Supply (M0) (Level) (Latvia )	SEP	- -	1573.3M
14 Oct. 09	00:00	Weekly CPI (WoW) (Russian Federation )	OCT 12	- -	0.00%
14 Oct. 09	00:00	Weekly CPI Year-to-Date (Russian Federation )	OCT 12	- -	8.10%
14 Oct. 09	00:00	Westpac Consumer Confidence (Australia )	OCT	- -	5.20%
14 Oct. 09	00:00	BOJ Target Rate (Japan )	OCT 14	0.10%	0.10%
14 Oct. 09	00:00	Trade Balance (USD) (China )	SEP	- -	$15.70B
14 Oct. 09	00:00	Exports YoY% (China )	SEP	- -	-23.40%
14 Oct. 09	00:00	Imports YoY% (China )	SEP	- -	-17.00%
14 Oct. 09	00:00	Unemployment Rate (Monthly) (Greece )	JUL	8.50%	8.60%
14 Oct. 09	04:00	Tokyo Condominium Sales (YoY) (Japan )	SEP	- -	-6.20%
14 Oct. 09	05:00	Consumer Confidence (Japan )	SEP	41.3	40.4
14 Oct. 09	05:00	Consumer Confidence Households (Japan )	SEP	- -	40.1
14 Oct. 09	05:00	Lafarge Shareholders Meeting (France )	OCT 14
14 Oct. 09	06:00	CPI (MoM) (Finland )	SEP	- -	0.30%
14 Oct. 09	06:00	CPI (YoY) (Finland )	SEP	- -	-0.70%
14 Oct. 09	07:00	Consumer Price Index (MoM) (Spain )	SEP	-0.30%	0.30%
14 Oct. 09	07:00	Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Spain )	SEP	-1.00%	-0.80%
14 Oct. 09	07:00	CPI (Core Index) (MoM) (Spain )	SEP	- -	0.10%
14 Oct. 09	07:00	CPI (Core Index) (YoY) (Spain )	SEP	- -	0.40%
14 Oct. 09	07:00	CPI (EU Harmonised) (MoM) (Spain )	SEP	-0.20%	0.40%
14 Oct. 09	07:00	CPI (EU Harmonised) (YoY) (Spain )	SEP F	-1.00%	-1.00%
14 Oct. 09	07:00	Retail Sales (YoY) (Czech Republic )	AUG	-3.10%	-4.90%
14 Oct. 09	07:00	Industrial Output (YoY) (Hungary )	AUG F	- -	-19.90%
14 Oct. 09	07:00	Industrial Output (MoM) (Hungary )	AUG F	- -	-0.70%
14 Oct. 09	07:30	Average House Prices (SEK) (Sweden )	SEP	- -	1.977M
14 Oct. 09	08:00	Existing Homes QoQ (Norway )	3Q	- -	5.30%
14 Oct. 09	08:30	Claimant Count Rate (United Kingdom )	SEP	5.10%	5.00%
14 Oct. 09	08:30	Jobless Claims Change (United Kingdom )	SEP	25.0K	24.4K
14 Oct. 09	08:30	Avg Earnings inc bonus 3M/YoY (United Kingdom )	AUG	1.40%	1.70%
14 Oct. 09	08:30	Avg Earnings ex bonus 3M/YoY (United Kingdom )	AUG	1.90%	2.20%
14 Oct. 09	08:30	ILO Unemployment Rate (3mths) (United Kingdom )	AUG	8.00%	7.90%
14 Oct. 09	08:30	Manu.Unit Wage Cost (3Ms/YoY) (United Kingdom )	AUG	- -	4.30%
14 Oct. 09	08:30	DIHK Industry & Trade Chambers Release Fall Economic Survey (Germany)	OCT 14
14 Oct. 09	09:00	Unemployment Rate (Iceland )	3Q	- -	9.10%
14 Oct. 09	09:00	Euro-Zone Ind. Prod. sa (MoM) (European Union)	AUG	0.80%	-0.30%
14 Oct. 09	09:00	Euro-Zone Ind. Prod. wda (YoY) (European Union)	AUG	-15.80%	-15.90%
14 Oct. 09	10:00	EU Issues Reports on Turkey, Croatia, Other Candidates (European Union)	OCT 14
14 Oct. 09	11:00	Bloomberg Global Confidence (United States of America )	OCT	- -	58.54
14 Oct. 09	11:00	MBA Mortgage Applications (United States of America )	OCT 9	- -	16.40%
14 Oct. 09	12:00	CPI (MoM) (Poland )	SEP	0.20%	-0.40%
14 Oct. 09	12:00	CPI (YoY) (Poland )	SEP	3.50%	3.70%
14 Oct. 09	12:00	Money Supply - M3 (Level) (Poland )	SEP	686450	686191
14 Oct. 09	12:00	Money Supply - M3 (MoM) (Poland )	SEP	-0.20%	-0.50%
14 Oct. 09	12:00	Chancellor Angela Merkel Joins Talks on Forming New Government (Germany)	OCT 14
14 Oct. 09	12:30	Import Price Index (MoM) (United States of America )	SEP	0.20%	2.00%
14 Oct. 09	12:30	Import Price Index (YoY) (United States of America )	SEP	-11.60%	-15.00%
14 Oct. 09	12:30	Advance Retail Sales (United States of America )	SEP	-2.10%	2.70%
14 Oct. 09	12:30	Retail Sales Less Autos (United States of America )	SEP	0.20%	1.10%
14 Oct. 09	12:30	Retail Sales Ex Auto & Gas (United States of America )	SEP	- -	0.60%
14 Oct. 09	12:30	New Motor Vehicle Sales MoM (Canada )	AUG	0.00%	5.30%
14 Oct. 09	13:00	Schaeuble Makes Security Statement in Potsdam (Germany)	OCT 14
14 Oct. 09	13:15	ECB's Bini Smaghi Speaks in Freiburg (Germany)	OCT 14
14 Oct. 09	14:00	Business Inventories (United States of America )	AUG	-0.80%	-1.00%
14 Oct. 09	18:00	Minutes of Sept. 23 FOMC Meeting (United States of America )	OCT 14
14 Oct. 09	18:00	Fed Releases Minutes from Sept. 22-23 FOMC Meeting (United States of America )	OCT 14
14 Oct. 09	18:30	Fed's Tarullo Testifies on Banking Industry at Senate Panel (United States of America )	OCT 14
14 Oct. 09	21:00	Toronto CFA Society Annual Forecast Dinner (Canada )	OCT 14
14 Oct. 09	21:45	Food Prices (MoM) (New Zealand )	SEP	- -	-0.90%
14 Oct. 09	21:45	Consumer Prices (QoQ) (New Zealand )	3Q	- -	0.60%
14 Oct. 09	21:45	Consumer Prices (YoY) (New Zealand )	3Q	- -	1.90%
14 Oct. 09	23:30	RBA Governor Stevens Speaks in Perth (Australia )	14-Oct
15 Oct. 09	00:00	Gold & Forex Reserve USD (Russian Federation )	OCT 9	- -	411.5B
15 Oct. 09	00:00	House Price Index QoQ (Spain )	3Q	- -	-1.90%
15 Oct. 09	00:00	House Price Index YoY (Spain )	3Q	- -	-8.20%
15 Oct. 09	00:00	Bank of Italy Releases Quarterly Economic Bulletin (Italy )	OCT 15
15 Oct. 09	00:00	Berlusconi Visits Bulgaria (Italy )	OCT 15
15 Oct. 09	01:00	Consumer Inflation Expectation (Australia )	OCT	- -	3.50%
15 Oct. 09	01:30	RBA Foreign Exchange Transactn (Australia )	SEP	- -	576M
15 Oct. 09	04:30	Industrial Production (MoM) (Japan )	AUG F	- -	1.80%
15 Oct. 09	04:30	Industrial Production YOY% (Japan )	AUG F	- -	-18.70%
15 Oct. 09	04:30	Capacity Utilization (MoM) (Japan )	AUG F	- -	3.90%
15 Oct. 09	05:00	BOJ Monthly Report (Japan )	OCT 15
15 Oct. 09	05:00	Remy Cointreau Publishes First-Half Sales Figures (France )	OCT 15
15 Oct. 09	05:00	Suedzucker Releases Second-Quarter Earnings (Germany)	OCT 15
15 Oct. 09	06:00	Finland Retail Sales Vo (Finland )	AUG F	- -	-3.90%
15 Oct. 09	06:00	ACEA European Carmakers Association Releases Monthly Sales (France )	OCT 15
15 Oct. 09	06:00	Total Publishes Refining Margins (France )	OCT 15
15 Oct. 09	06:00	ACEA European Carmakers Association Releases Monthly Car Sales (Germany)	OCT 15
15 Oct. 09	06:00	EU 25 New Car Registrations (European Union)	SEP	- -	3.30%
15 Oct. 09	07:00	Finland Current Account (EUR) (Finland )	AUG	- -	0.44B
15 Oct. 09	07:00	PPI (Industrial) (MoM) (Czech Republic )	SEP	-0.20%	0.20%
15 Oct. 09	07:00	PPI (Industrial) (YoY) (Czech Republic )	SEP	-5.20%	-5.10%
15 Oct. 09	07:00	Export Price Index (YoY) (Czech Republic )	AUG	- -	0.50%
15 Oct. 09	07:00	Import Price Index (YoY) (Czech Republic )	AUG	- -	-4.40%
15 Oct. 09	07:00	Unemployment Rate (Turkey )	JUL	13.00%	13.00%
15 Oct. 09	07:00	Rehn Speaks to EU Parliament Panel (European Union)	OCT 15
15 Oct. 09	07:30	Wholesale Prices (MoM) (Germany)	SEP	- -	0.60%
15 Oct. 09	07:30	Wholesale Prices (YoY) (Germany)	SEP	- -	-8.30%
15 Oct. 09	07:30	Retail Sales (YoY) (Netherlands )	AUG	-4.00%	-3.60%
15 Oct. 09	08:00	CPI (NIC incl. tobacco) (MoM) (Italy )	SEP F	-0.20%	-0.20%
15 Oct. 09	08:00	CPI (NIC incl. tobacco) (YoY) (Italy )	SEP F	0.20%	0.20%
15 Oct. 09	08:00	CPI - EU Harmonized (MoM) (Italy )	SEP F	0.60%	0.60%
15 Oct. 09	08:00	CPI - EU Harmonized (YoY) (Italy )	SEP F	0.30%	0.30%
15 Oct. 09	08:00	Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Austria )	SEP	- -	0.30%
15 Oct. 09	08:00	Consumer Price Index (MoM) (Austria )	SEP	- -	0.40%
15 Oct. 09	08:00	ECB Publishes Oct. Monthly Report (Text) (European Union)	OCT 15
15 Oct. 09	08:00	Trade Balance (Krone) (Norway )	SEP	- -	24.9B
15 Oct. 09	09:00	Euro-Zone CPI (MoM) (European Union)	SEP	0.10%	0.30%
15 Oct. 09	09:00	Euro-Zone CPI (YoY) (European Union)	SEP	-0.30%	-0.20%
15 Oct. 09	09:00	Euro-Zone CPI - Core (YoY) (European Union)	SEP	1.20%	1.30%
15 Oct. 09	09:00	ZEW Survey (Expectations) (Switzerland )	OCT	- -	58
15 Oct. 09	09:00	Germany's Leading Economic Institutes Present Joint Outlook (Germany)	OCT 15
15 Oct. 09	10:30	EU's Dimas, Sweden's Carlgren Discuss Climate-Change Policy (European Union)	OCT 15
15 Oct. 09	11:25	ECB's Trichet Speaks on 'Lessons From Crisis', Frankfurt (Germany)	OCT 15
15 Oct. 09	11:25	ECB's Trichet Speaks in Frankfurt (Germany)	OCT 15
15 Oct. 09	11:45	Canadian Oil Sands Trust CEO Marcel Coutu Speaks in Toronto (Canada )	OCT 15
15 Oct. 09	12:30	Manufacturing Sales MoM (Canada )	AUG	1.00%	5.50%
15 Oct. 09	12:30	Consumer Price Index (MoM) (United States of America )	SEP	0.20%	0.40%
15 Oct. 09	12:30	CPI Ex Food & Energy (MoM) (United States of America )	SEP	0.10%	0.10%
15 Oct. 09	12:30	Consumer Price Index (YoY) (United States of America )	SEP	-1.40%	-1.50%
15 Oct. 09	12:30	CPI Ex Food & Energy (YoY) (United States of America )	SEP	1.40%	1.40%
15 Oct. 09	12:30	Initial Jobless Claims (United States of America )	OCT 10	525K	521K
15 Oct. 09	12:30	CPI Core Index SA (United States of America )	SEP	- -	219.692
15 Oct. 09	12:30	Continuing Claims (United States of America )	OCT 3	- -	6040K
15 Oct. 09	12:30	Consumer Price Index NSA (United States of America )	SEP	- -	215.834
15 Oct. 09	12:30	Empire Manufacturing (United States of America )	OCT	18	18.88
15 Oct. 09	13:00	Budget Level (Monthly Total) (Poland )	SEP	- -	-600.9M
15 Oct. 09	13:00	Budget Perf. (Year to date) (Poland )	SEP	- -	57.50%
15 Oct. 09	13:00	Budget Level (Year to date) (Poland )	SEP	- -	-15643.M
15 Oct. 09	13:45	Fed's Bullard Gives Welcoming Remarks at Bank's Conference (United States of America )	OCT 15
15 Oct. 09	14:00	Philadelphia Fed. (United States of America )	OCT	12	14.1
15 Oct. 09	15:30	Merkel, Sarkozy Speak at World Health Summit in Berlin (Germany)	OCT 15
15 Oct. 09	15:30	Imperial Oil Limited CEO Bruce March Speaks in Calgary (Canada )	OCT 15
15 Oct. 09	15:45	Accor Publishes Third-Quarter Sales Figures (France )	OCT 15
15 Oct. 09	15:45	Carrefour Publishes Third-Quarter Sales Figures (France )	OCT 15
15 Oct. 09	16:00	Base Rate (Turkey )	OCT 15	6.75%	7.25%
15 Oct. 09	17:30	Imperial Oil CEO Bruce March Speaks in Calgary (Canada )	OCT 15
16 Oct. 09	00:00	Cabinet Office Monthly Economic Report (Japan )	OCT 16
16 Oct. 09	00:00	Money Supply Narrow Def.RUB (Russian Federation )	OCT 12	- -	4.0B
16 Oct. 09	00:00	Trade Balance (Mln Euros) (Belgium )	AUG	- -	909.7M
16 Oct. 09	05:30	Safran Releases Nine-Month Earnings (France )	OCT 16
16 Oct. 09	06:35	BOJ Governor Masaaki Shirakawa to Speak in Tokyo (Japan )	OCT 16
16 Oct. 09	07:00	Consumer Confidence (Turkey )	SEP	81.8	81.3
16 Oct. 09	07:15	Retail Sales (Real) (YoY) (Switzerland )	AUG	- -	1.00%
16 Oct. 09	08:00	Trade Balance (Total) (Euros) (Italy )	AUG	- -	4107.0M
16 Oct. 09	08:00	Trade Balance Eu (Euros) (Italy )	AUG	- -	2397.0M
16 Oct. 09	08:00	ECB's Bini Smaghi Speaks in Siena (Italy )	OCT 16
16 Oct. 09	09:00	Euro-Zone Trade Balance (European Union)	AUG	- -	12.6B
16 Oct. 09	09:00	Euro-Zone Trade Balance sa (European Union)	AUG	- -	6.8B
16 Oct. 09	09:00	Merkel to Speak at Re-Opening of Berlin's New Museum (Germany)	OCT 16
16 Oct. 09	09:05	Current Account (mlns euro) (Italy )	AUG	- -	3334.0M
16 Oct. 09	10:00	Retail Sales(Volume) (MoM) (Ireland )	AUG	- -	0.20%
16 Oct. 09	10:00	Retail Sales(Volume) (YoY) (Ireland )	AUG	- -	-15.00%
16 Oct. 09	11:00	Consumer Price Index MoM (Canada )	SEP	0.00%	0.00%
16 Oct. 09	11:00	Consumer Price Index YoY (Canada )	SEP	-0.90%	-0.80%
16 Oct. 09	11:00	Bank Canada CPI Core MoM (Canada )	SEP	0.10%	0.10%
16 Oct. 09	11:00	Bank Canada CPI Core YoY (Canada )	SEP	1.30%	1.60%
16 Oct. 09	12:00	Avg Gross Wages (MoM) (Poland )	SEP	0.20%	-2.80%
16 Oct. 09	12:00	Avg Gross Wages (YoY) (Poland )	SEP	3.00%	3.00%
16 Oct. 09	12:00	Employment (MoM) (Poland )	SEP	-0.10%	-0.10%
16 Oct. 09	12:00	Employment (YoY) (Poland )	SEP	-2.40%	-2.20%
16 Oct. 09	13:00	Net Long-term TIC Flows (United States of America )	AUG	- -	$15.3B
16 Oct. 09	13:00	Total Net TIC Flows (United States of America )	AUG	- -	-$97.5B
16 Oct. 09	13:15	Industrial Production (United States of America )	SEP	0.10%	0.80%
16 Oct. 09	13:15	Capacity Utilization (United States of America )	SEP	69.70%	69.60%
16 Oct. 09	14:00	U. of Michigan Confidence (United States of America )	OCT P	73.5	73.5
16 Oct. 09	14:00	ECB's Bini Smaghi Speaks in Florence (Italy )	OCT 16
16 Oct. 09	16:30	Ukraine's Yushchenko Speaks in Brussels (European Union)	OCT 16

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